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My Journey to Professional Football-Betting
Observations and thoughts of a pre-professional football bettor with occassional comments by J Armstrong. Updated at least once weekly.

by Daniel Andersson

Date: 1 April 2008

3 Out of 3 Last Week + Tuesday's CL Previews

Hi J

3 Out of 3 Last Week + Tuesday's CL Previews

During the weekend I made three selections. I missed a few good bets because of a lack of time but that is something you have to take when you aren't pro yet and time gets short some times.

The three bets was Portsmouth -0.5, Liverpool -0.75 and Depor -0.5.

Portsouth faced Wigan in a game that motivationally favoured Wigan but that isn't always what decides the bet. Portsmouth is a much stronger team and at home against a weak away team they are expected to win. Both teams had some injury and suspension problems and it wasn't just bench players that was missing both teams was missing a few starters. Portsmouth have the wideness of the squad to deal with such problems in a game like this and the replacements had the chance to show that they should start next week in the FA cup. Wigan on the other hand can't replace starting players with a as competant player and with a small midfield crisis this can be very costly. So the major reasons for the bet was the injuries at midfield for Wigan which will give Portsmouth a much bigger chance to win the midfield struggle that they probably would have won anyway. The competiveness in the Portsmouth squad to be selected in the FA cup. The home field advantage was also a big factor, mostly because of Wigan's weak road form.

This game worked out quite nicely. I didn't see it though and can't say much about it. Final score 2-0.

The Liverpool derby was my second selection in Liverpool. Despite the upcoming Champions League fixture against Arsenal Liverpool will be very focused on this game. Everton is in fifth possition and hence one place away from Liverpool and a major threat for a Champions League adventure next season for Liverool. This will make this game even more important than the fact that it is a derby. Liverpool will not drop their league position to their city rivals. Except for motivation as the reason for the bet, which was a big key, there is also the fact that Liverpool is in great form even though they lost to Manchester United, which will actually contribute even more motivation to win this game, and at home they historically have an easy time against Everton. On top of all of that Everton look a bit weak up front when Cahill is out of the game. Yakubu is a strong striker but alone against a solid defence he will have big problems to create anything. A big part of Everton's game is set pieces but against Liverpool who also have some strong players in the air defensively they aren't superior there. Torres and Gerard will create some big trouble for the Everton defence and will not cope the entire game.

Liverpool was the dominating team in the game and it was closer to a two goal win then a draw. Final score 1-0.

Deportivo la Curuna has picked up some pace in the bottom race and showed off some good football. They are in really good form and at home against a weak Murcia they will most likely take another step towards survival. Murcia did suprise last round with a 4-0 win but that was acording to me a temporary high from a otherwise terrible form. That win will most likely create a false confidence and a sence of relief that will do them no good.

Despite a early goal against them Depor came back and showed to be the better team. Murcia couldn't stop Depor's fast running style game wich looked more like a 3-4-3 than the five man back line they have used recently. Even though some waves in the play Depor won the game fairly. Final score 3-1.

It's time forChampions League again and there are some very interesting games. With only two set ups, or really just one because Fenerbache has shown some good game and has some real good players. The set up was of course Shalke, who isn't a bad team at all but they don't have the same quality they had a few years ago.

Tuesday brings Roma - Man U and Shalke - Barca.

Roma have a chance for revenge and show that the debacle in Manchester (lost 7-1) wasn't a accurate picture of Roma's quality. Unfortunatly for Roma the odds for a repeat isn't that high in my opinion. Man U is showing some great form and C Ronaldo is in the form of his life. Roma will be missing Totti who despite a not great form this season, although better lately, is still very important for Roma and if nothing else he inspires respect in there oponents and without him Man U can focus on their own play alot more.

Roma will most likey focus on defence and try to catch United on the counter attack and they do have the quality to cause worry in the United defence but the Manchester team is used to this sort of game at Old Trafford and despite Roma is a better team than most teams that just go for one point away against United they will have serious problems keeping the point they have when the game starts. Without Totti Roma lose alot of creativity and Romas attack may get a bit easy to read for Man U who has a coach who probably know Roma in and out and know exactly how to edge them out. Just look at how they neutrulized Gerard against Liverpool.

The debacle around Ronaldinho continues as he is not selected for the Shalke game. And with Messi and Deco out and a doubt in Eto'o there is an even bigger chance they go for the draw and to finish it at home.

Thanks for reading.

Daniel

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