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Observations and thoughts of a pre-professional football bettor with occassional comments by J Armstrong. Updated at least once weekly.

by Daniel Andersson

Date: 7 March 2008

Why AC Milan failed in the CL

During the CL fixtures this week I placed only one bet and it was on Milan. In my previous entry I made a preview of the game and that sums up most of the reasons but I will go through it here too.

First off Milan has major motivational reasons to go full out in this game (even though motivation as a factor isn't that big in the Champions League, I will get to that later). This is the only competition left for them to fight in this season and to basically end the season in March isn't really a option for a big club like Milan. They play the game at home and should be able to control it in the direction they want, even though Arsenal is a very strong team. The game will most likely be decided by the midfields and I consider Milan to have one of the absolute strongest midfields in the world, even though Seedorf is missing because Ambrosini has made some very good perfomances this season.

The routine for these kinds of matches is huge in Milan and the tactical ability is also great so they should be able to close Arsenal's flair down. They can also decide the game in many ways. On free kicks (Pirlo), corners (all the great headers), counter attack (Kaka and Pato), slow grinding attack á la Milan and distance shots with many good shooters.

The game developed to the only scenario that Arsenal had a real chance in and they were clearly the best team. But I can't understand how almost all Milan players, all but Maldini, played far below their ability. I don't think I have ever seen Pirlo miss so many passes and all other midfield players seemed to have something else on there minds.

Armstrong: We also tipped Milan to win but apparently Milan's recent heavy fixture list (playing 16 games in 6 weeks, as disrupted matches by the Club World Cup were being played now) and their relatively small squad probably explains the fatigue and lack of focus. They couldn't handle it.

Fabregas had an entire sea of space to operate in and if Adebayor wouldn't have had the CL block he's had all season the game would have ended sooner. Maybe Milan is full on success and it's time for a generation switch. Or the play in the league this seasons Serie A isn't a lack of motivation, because they focused on other competitions, maybe they just aren't as good any more. Because when I think about it they used to be very dependent on Kaka and now when he has had bad form all season they aren't a world class team, perhaps? It should also be said that Milan has a very thin squad, it's basically only the starting eleven that is world class, and they have had injury problems this season so that may be the cause to their poor season.

The motivational factor in the Champions League knock out stages isn't of big importance, that's at least what I have come to understand. It is like this because the importance of the game is so big that both teams will go in with great motivation. But there is other psychological factors that is involved, such as conviction and nerves.

Teams that aren't used to the big scene can either be very affected by nerves and lack of conviction or not at all since they know that they have already outdone themselves and will just do their absolute best.

What is important in CL is the class of the teams and tactical dispositions. Those are the biggest factors. Also, in the first rounds in the knock outs there will almost always be a preparation for the second round especially if the better team starts away, then they will be more than happy with a draw and not risk anything that will make it tougher to decide it in the second game.

A game I was very close to bet on was Real - Roma. I would have placed a bet on Real if only Van Nistelroy and Robben would have been able to play. If Real would have had a full team I am sure they would have pulled through. Real doesn't have a good replacement for Ruud which really shows when he doesn't play. They don't have anyone else who only plays to score goals, even though they are great players they are a bit like Arsenal can be without Ruud. And by that I mean they want to play beautiful football.

With these two players the pressure for the Roma defence would have been too great. And if Ramos would have been able to play the Real defence would have been much more stable because it is a big difference in ability between Ramos and Salgado, especially in their defensive ability. So in this game it was injuries that was decisive. In the first round injuries played an important roll also when Robinho couldn't play.

Other than this there were two unexpected wins when Fenerbache and Shalke pulled through to the quarters. Fenerbache could become a real contender in the future if they get a stronger defence. They seem tobe very unfocused in defence. In the two games against Sevilla they conceded five goals but three of them shouldn't have happened. Two of them were big misses by the goalkeeper and the third was an own goal.

Depending on the quarter-finals draw and how Inter - Liverpool goes it is very likely that the semi-finals will be an all British affair. They all look very strong and from the other teams left, Barca is probably their biggest contender, but with Messi out for six weeks their attack will be weaker and they will have a very tough time against any of the PL sides. Roma is also a threat and if they can get some consistency in their defence they will be a big threat for any club and they may finally become one of the truly big clubs in Europe.

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