Football Betting Basics

For Advanced Bettors

Football Betting Tools

My Journey to Professional Football-Betting
Observations and thoughts of a pre-professional football bettor with occassional comments by J Armstrong. Updated at least once weekly.

by Daniel Andersson

Date: 7 April 2008

League Games v Cup Games and 4 out of 4!

I have noticed a big difference in my ability to bet league games compared to cup games. I have mentioned this before but I will say it again. In league games I have a hit rate of over 60% (from asian hcp and the amount of bets is beginning to add up so statistically it gets more and more accurate). But in cup game my record isn't as good. I am in fact on minus in cup games. One reason to this I think is that I am not selective enough in when betting in the different cups. Another fact is that it is tougher to bet those games. It is just something for me to work on.

Armstrong: There is definitely more information out there for leagues as compared to cup games, for the average bettor. For example, there is more head-to-head information for teams in the same league. Also, motivational factors vary greatly for the different clubs, based on their positions and objectives that season. These motivations are not always made very clear to the public. Factors like depth of squad usually play a major part as well.

I have been trying out a new, for me, system for stats and power rating. I now use the old two point for a win and one point for a draw. I use this to asses power and form. It is not tested thourough enough yet but it seems better than my old approach. I used to use goal difference for form but it could be very misleading if a game had finnished with a five goal win because of different unprediced events like a few red cards or a melt down by the opponent.

Now, this weekend I made four bets and all four hit.

The bets were; Aston Villa -0.75, Newcastle -0.5, Atletico Madrid -0.75 and Sampdoria -0.75.

Aston Villa were facing a Bolton who have had internal disputes with players saying they are going to leave and the likes and despite the coach said that everything is okay I don't believe him. This is something that is done to try and keep the issues inside the group. So a troubled and considerably weaker team going up against a strong, altough struggling at the moment, Villa who is still chasing a euro spot ends up in a game with a very likely home win. Carew have had some trouble since the debacle in Manchester but should be fit to play which is very important for Villa who depends alot on their set pieces and Carew's height and strength is a great asset there. After bring crushed by Man U Aston Villa is very keen on a bounce back in this game and at home against Bolton they can very well start a good run.

Armstrong: Valid point, Daniel, because teams are headed by managers who have their own personal agendas. It's not always wise to believe every word that comes out from the mouths of managers, especially those in trouble - they are not to blame though, as it is a big part of their job to keep the team positive.

I didn't see this game, or any other because I was busy all weekend but it seems this game went the way I thought with a clear Aston Villa win. Final Score 4-0.

Newcastle have had a terrible run under Keegan but they turned it around recently and it looks like they are starting to get things in order. It is a big change for a team to go from a defensively focused Allardyce to a offensive total football inspired Keegan so it isn't that strange they have been struggling and add injury problems to that also. At home to Reading who isn't very strong on the road Newcastle have a big chance to continue their recent successes. After breaking a bad spell like Newcastle had and manage to not fall down the next game and an inspiring Keegan will give the players a strong motivation and belief in themself to win this game.

It looks like Newcastle were in control of this game when looking at the stats from the game and it finished 3-0.

Almeira had a great period at the beginning of 08 up to recently but they have fallen off a bit and will have problems to motivate themselves for this game since they have acomplished the goal for this season which was to avoid the drop to Segunda. Atletico however is still chasing top positions and despite a bit flaky form and performances this is a game they should grab a hold of and take the chance to still be in it for the Champions League positions. Atletico's disorganized defence against a very strong set piece team may be a bit alarming but the Madrid based team need to show their fans a good game after the trashing from Villareal. Atletico's strong attack will show to be to tough for Almeira.

Armstrong: Great analysis.

The game ended 6-3 with two red cards for Almeira and one of them very early. Madrid seem to have dominated the game but that isn't so strange with first one then two men more on the pitch. Both the unorganized defence and the the strong attack showed themselves for this game.

Sampdoria get the boost of Casano's return and despite they have been going great in the five games without him his pressence will most likely increase their ability a notch or two. They also have Belucci in the starting line up again. After their five games unbeaten streak they now have a chance for a euro spot and even a Champions League spot. This will most likely motivate them a bit more also. Other than that homefield advantage, the good form and the fact that they are stronger than Livorno was the decider here.

Thanks for reading.

Daniel

Click Here to Become a Member of The Silver Circle.

1. Receive J Armstrong's personal picks through both email and SMS.
2. Direct access to J Armstrong though email.
3. Access to Members' Area and support.
4. Access to protected information reserved only for members.