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Observations and thoughts of a pre-professional football bettor with occassional comments by J Armstrong. Updated at least once weekly.

by Daniel Andersson

Date: 11 March 2008

Riding Streaks and Inter Milan - Liverpool Preview

Hi J,

I had a busy weekend so I didn't have alot of time for betting, it was work and also the indoor athletics world championships which interests me. It was also alot of trouble gathering stats because the site I get me stats seemed to be on strike when I was about to deal with the leg work. That ended in no stats at all for La Liga but some for the other ones. But I did find three good bets.

Saturday offered two bets for me, it also showed a opportunity of "riding streaks" which I have thought about. My bets were     Blackburn  -0.75 and Real Madrid -0.75.

I can't offer any long analysis of any of the games, because of the shortness of time at the time of betting so I didn't put the reasons on paper but I will test my memory.

Blackburn is now chasing a Euro cup place and will need to be more consistent in their performances and a game at home against Fulham is a must win game. Form-wise, Fulham is really down the drain and Blackburn should be able to grab this quite easy. Fulham is also missing a couple of starting players. Blackburn is missing Dunn but Bently has replaced him in the centre before and showed he can play there. The only small problem is the rearranging in the back four because of this injury although it shouldn't be of much importance in this game.

I guess I was wrong here. I can't say much more about the game then what I have read which seems to show a Blackburn edge but reviews aren't always correct and both coaches seem to think they have been unfairly treated by the ref and that they should have won so only someone who saw the game can say who's right.

Real Madrid I bet on without seeing any stats but it wasn't really needed in this game, and I don't always use stats that much I guess I am more of a situational bettor. I saw that it already was a preview by you on the site and it pretty much sums up the reasons for my bet. I don't remember if it mentioned the long absence of Tamudo and that De la Pena would be missing which really is a blow for Espanyol. They don't seem to be able to perform without their captain and even though he could be making a comeback he won't probably and if were to play it's doubtful how much he can contribute more than a morale boost. And as mentioned in the preview previously discussed this is Real's last chance for a title this season. They should have left the CL dissmisal behind them and have full focus on this game.

Then on Sunday my only bet was Lazio -0.75. This bet can be summed up in three steps:

1. They are the stronger team.
2. They are in the chase of the upper possitions and still has the knife against their necks to perform.
3. The arival of Bianchi creating the magic trio up front which seem to have been a boost in morale.

Something that I think can be very lucrative is "riding streaks". Betting with in form teams and against cold teams. This may seem obvious but I mean you can basically follow a team for a couple of games if you see they are on or off. And this seem to be especially true on big teams who are in form and playing at home. They seem to cover the spread every time in these situations. Take Liverpool at the moment and Man U some weeks ago.

Then there are teams that just seem to be off, like Derby and Newcastle, This isn't really a form issue though. Derby just isn't good enough for the Premiership and Newcastle has tactical problems so you could call them just cold teams. There is also Man C at the moment but that problem can be spelled injuries. Now that I think more about it, this really isn't anything special, it's just a form issue or a tactical problem or a class problem (when dealing with injuries). Although big teams in big form and home I think can be very predictable to cover the spread even though it isn't any big news, I wanted to mention it.

Now, finally, comes Inter - Liverpool in the CL which I am looking forward to alot. It will most likely be a very physical game since both teams are very strong physical teams. They are both very strong on all physical aspects of the game but also technically and Benitez can be somewhat unpredictable in his tactical dispositions in CL so it is a tough game to predict. I expect Liverpool to come into the game with a low aggressive defence with Torres up front threatening the entire Inter defence on his own. He has proven he is that good, he is actually beginning to resemble a young Ronaldo to me.

Inter's performance in the first round was embarrassing, how one of, if the best teams in Europe could go into a such an important game with that attitude and tactics is very strange. I think Liverpool won't make that mistake. Even though in defence, they will be very aggressive and not passive as Inter was. I mentioned last week that I thought Milan had the best midfield in the world. Now the other Milano team may not have the best midfield but they do have the most physical midfield with players such as Cambiasso, Zanetti, Stankovic and Vieira. On top of them the other parts of the team is also very physical in Maicon, Ibrahimovic and Cruz among others. So even though Liverpool are strong Inter are slightly stronger and I think that can be decisive. If Inter can keep control over Torres and also close Gerard down better than Milan did Fabregas, which I think they can do, they have a big chance on victory and even progression in the CL.

Daniel

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Sorry for the late write up, work takes time sometimes.

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