Football Betting Analyses

My Journey to Professional Football-Betting
Observations and thoughts of a pre-professional football bettor with occassional comments by J Armstrong. Updated at least once weekly.

by Daniel Andersson

Date: 12 February 2008

Previous Game Motivation

I made a small loss of 1% this weekend and to be honest I am expecting that I might lose money during this and maybe even next season when I am learning the ins and outs of football betting, so I am not that concerned. I need to learn to gather a lot of info and stats and then at the same time be selective in the sense that I only use the important info in my analysis and not be effected by the info that is irrelevant for the game in question.

A different reason I have been doing poorly (betting wise) lately is because my brain is almost on overload because I am constantly thinking of what to do better, what I did wrong, coming up with theories on betting, ideas, systems and methods for picking winners. So my mind right now isn't really about profits but more on getting better.

On my bets this weekend I can't say I am that dissapointed. It was some bets I should have made but didn't and one that was a bad bet in my opinion. But from this I have come up with a "method" that of picking winners that looks very promising (it's not the one I shared a couple of days ago, that one needs some work). I think I will keep this one for myself though.

Saturday was all good bets but I did miss out on Roma which I avoided because the hcp moved from -1.5 to -1.75, and that wasn't enough not to bet. My bets were; Middlesbrough -0.5, West Ham -0.5, Tottenham (away) -1 and Sevilla - Barcelona over 2.5.

The M.brough bet was made because I think they are stronger than Fulham and they are in good form. On top of that they played at home and I considered them motivated. A little extra motivation should be present when there biggest purchase in history (Alves) is to make his first appearance. To cover a spread of -0.5 shouldn't be a problem in this game.

West Ham vs Birmingham was very similar to the previously mentioned game. Class, Form and Motivation was all possitive and in favour of West Ham. And Birmingham was missing their biggest offensive threat and creative force in form of Kapo.

Tottenham is finally beginning to show some real class and Derby on away pitch shouldn't be a problem. Derby also had big defensive problems approaching this game with many injuries. And Tottenham's flamboyant attack shouldn't have any problems breaking through Derby's back line. Tottenham will also come in to this game with a revenge attitude after dropping a win to a draw against Man U in the last minute. This revenge thing is something I have thought some about lately and I have also mentioned the form without results to you and this is something very similar. It is something I call "previous game motivation". This can manifest from several things such as the team feel they deserved a better result then they got or for a top team that just made a very poor performance (Almeira-R Madrid 2-0 or Siena-Roma 3-0).

The Over Bet was a good bet in my opinion and it was in line with the "model" for over/under bets I sent you a while ago. Even though that need some refinement. Two attacking teams with a lot of pace and good wing play. Even though Barcelona hasn't shown their true quallity lately. Their has also been some rearanging in Barcas defence. The only thing that really talked against this was the absence of Eto'o who is very acompished at scoring. The game should have had at least one more goal considering the good chances (especially for Sevilla) that was created. On a side note I must say that Sevilla has the best wing play in the world considering that they can cover for any winger, except Daniel Alves, with a just as good player and they all have top quallity.

Sunday wasn't as successful in selections. The misstake was to bet on Mallorca -0.5. This was bad becaus Almeira's recent good form but also Mallorca's playing style that doesn't really fit Ameira. They have a team suited for counter play but at home against a small team that won't be the scene of the game. Then Mallorca hasn't won two games in a row since their good start of the season and this is psychological aspect I also overlooked. I also missed out on R Madrid just because van Nistelroy was out. That was a misstake in this game. And not because they won but because I overestimated his injury.

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