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My Journey to Professional Football-Betting
Observations and thoughts of a pre-professional football bettor with occassional comments by J Armstrong. Updated at least once weekly.

by Daniel Andersson

Date: 14 March 2008

My Picks This Week

During the midweek fixtures I found two bets, it was actually the same as the Silver Circle's. The fact that I'm picking the same bets as Armstrong sometimes, is something that proves I'm getting better and picking good games since he's been in this game for so long and always been performing.

I should say that I do get the Silver Circle picks but I never look at them before I have selected my own bets. Since I'm trying to get better myself I don't want to be affected by others in the selection process.

These 2 bets were Aston Villa -0.75 and Sporting Lisbon -1.

Aston Villa has shown some real class this season and are fighting for a Euro spot. After showing some good form recently and O'Neils motivational talks, emphasizing the importance of a good last period of the season for a chance to grab a UEFA Cup spot and that it need to start with this match I think they will show their class.

Barry and Reo-Coker should control the midfield since they are a class better than Middlesbrough's central midfield. What can pose a threat for Villa is Downing on the left wing but if Mellberg plays, (he should but there can be some political or personal issues since he has signed for Juve), he should be under at least decent control.

Boro's center backs isn't exactly the best in the league and the diversity of speed and strength of Villa's forwards is probably too tough for them. On the other side of the field, Boro lose speed in the absence of Aliadiere and in the air, both Laursen or Knight should not have any big problems. So if Villa can keep Downing under control, their overal strength should decide this.

My bet on Sporting basically had just one key. They drew away to Bolton, whilst being the better team and deserving victory. Now at home, the class difference should once again show and since they need a win, or a 0-0 draw which isn't that likely their goal, they will be going full out in this game. Also, they have had some trouble in the league, especially on the road, so they need something to ease the pressure and a win here would mean alot.

Besides those 2 matches, there were two other games I looked into and it was Inter - Liverpool and Chelsea - Derby but eventually decided not to bet on them.

It was Inter and Chelsea that was of interest in those games. Inter because of the strong motivational reasons and the fact that Liverpool would go through with a one goal loss or even two goals with 2-0 excluded. The other reasons is in my previous post. I did not bet on Inter because of two reasons.

First the injuries and susspensions of their three strongest central defenders. Even though the ones that came to play holds a very high standard they aren't all that used to play together or with the keeper and full backs. This can bring confusion and not perfect organisation. This with a Torres in the form of his life isn't a good combination considering a bet on Inter. Then it was the tactical issue.

Benitez has shown several times he is very good in the CL and then Mancini isn't the best tactical coach. Liverpool would know how to handle this game good and not get to passive and just wait for the end whistle.

Chelsea I didn't play becasue there has been some grudges within the club, even though it is common it is still not optimal, and the handicap was too high for me at -2.25. Other than that it offered a good opportunity with Chelsea in good general form that lost very surprisingly against Barnsley which should give them more motivation to prove themself in the coming game. And Derby doesn't hold Premiership class.

Thanks for reading.

Daniel

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