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My Journey to Professional Football-Betting
Observations and thoughts of a pre-professional football bettor with occassional comments by J Armstrong. Updated at least once weekly.

by Daniel Andersson

Date: 18 March 2008

Home Pitch Decides It

Hi J

One thing that made me think this weekend was Reading and their short training camp. What kind of effects do these midseason short getaways have?

Now I didn't see the game against Liverpool but it seems they were dominant as they should be but Reading did manage to only lose 2-1. Whether the training camp had any effect is hard to say but here is what I think they can contribute and when they can be useful to betting.

First off, a change in environment can bring a changed state of mind because it breakes bad patterns and routines and with that removes negative emotions so if a team is in bad form or there is something that just isn't working in the games, a change in environment - training camp abroad, may very well bring a positive change to the pitch.

A team with poor form that goes on a short getaway is likely to come back with a better attitude and better form hence being a possible bet, or if their opposition is the potential bet, it may be wise to at least take a closer look at the game. Another thing that may have the same effect is a change in training, the change will not make the players better because it is better drills but because of the change of routine. This however isn't scientific at all and is just a theory of mine.

This weekend I made seven bets - 3 wins 2 losses and 2 draws.

The bets were as follows; Rec Huelva -0.5, Betis -0.25, Arsenal -1.25, Villareal -0.75, Racing +0.25, Atalanta -0.5 and Juventus -1.

The bet on Huelva was primerily based on motivational factors. Class and form also pointed towards Huelva but it was two motivational factors that made this a clear bet for me.

First, this was a bottom fight and what some people call a six point game. Now this is something that affects both teams but considering Huelva is playing at home with their fans' support and that they are in better general form I think they gained most from it. Secondly they got crushed in their previous game against Mallorca, 7-1, which makes them want to step up and prove that they aren't that bad. So their was some PGM (previous game motivation) in action here. Score – Huelva 4 Murcia 2

Betis had home pitch which served them well against Bilbao, a team that isn't a road team. Bilbao has also had a very tough time winning in Sevilla against Betis. This is also a bottom fight so both teams should be very motivated but Betis comes from a game which they probably felt they deserved a better result. They lost 3-0 against Santander but displayed a good performance until they got a man sent off early in the second half and then they fell through. So they should have been motivated to turn that around. Score - Match Abandoned

Arsenal had the entire week to prepare for this game and they should really want to turn things around after a couple of league games with bad results. It is a tight fight in the top between them and Man U so this is a game they must win. The only big threat in Middlesbrough is their left wing in Downing but Sagna has shown he holds up and should be able to control him well enough with the support of the central defenders.

With Van Persie back, the distance shots may increase again for Arsenal which is needed against lesser opponents at home considering they almost always defend with all players in a wall in front of goal. Those shots are needed to push the defending team up in the field to create space behind and between them to create better scoring chances. Score – Arsenal 1 Boro 1

Villareal is playing at home and even though they haven't had the best home form possible it is still a positive since Zaragoza's away form is terrible. Villareal is stronger than Zaragoza despite having equally strong squads. Zaragoza is actually stronger at some parts but Zaragoza haven't made the tactical and the performances on the pitch work this season. The poor season may have a cause in the expectations that they had put on them which, even though they have been good previous seasons, they haven't had before. Villareal is going strong and have good morale in the team and they should be able to win against a chaotic Zaragoza. Score - Villareal 2 Zaragoza 0

Getafe have played ten games in about a month and should start to feel a bit tired and Racing Santander is very strong defensively which makes this a very possible draw. Getafe will probably go in and try to control the game with possession which will give Racing chances for counter attacks. It will be tough for a tired Getafe to open up Racing's defence if they don't have the energy to run the entire game. Score – Getafe 2 Racing 1

Both Atalanta and Empoli are in bad form but Atalanta have shown that they don't tend to have very long dips and the capability to get out of them. The home pitch will be very important for Atalanta in this game since they have scored most goals at home and Empoli has scored least goals in the league at away pitch. So in this game, class and home pitch decides it. Score – Atalanta 4 Empoli 1

Juventus - Napoli. Here is another game that home pitch will be very important. Juve is strong at home and Napoli isn't quite the same team on the road as at home. Napoli is also missing Zalayeta and Blasi.

Zalayeta, who is their top goal scorer is missing and they will lose strength and a constant threat upfront. Juve also have some injuries but they are all replaceable to me. The one they can miss some is Camaronesi but it won't be of that big importance in this game. Zanetti who also misses will easily be replaced by Sissoko and Tiago. The constant set piece threat in del Piero and the deadly touch of Trezegue along with the massive machinery that is Juventus and the many options on the bench to change the game will be too tough for Napoli. Score – Juve 1 Napoli 0

Thanks for reading.

Daniel

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