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My Journey to Professional Football-Betting
Observations and thoughts of a pre-professional football bettor with occassional comments by J Armstrong. Updated at least once weekly.

by Daniel Andersson

Date: 22 April 2008

MY BETS LAST WEEKEND

Hey J

This weekend's bets were slightly worse in performance than the the last three weeks, I was 10-0 coming in to this weekend. I actually got a bit careless or unfocused considering one of the bets but I will get to that later.

So the results from my bets was 5 wins (with two of them half wins) and 3 losses. The bets were as follows; Middlesbrough -0.25, Atletico Madrid -0.75, Sevilla -1, Fiorentina -0.75, Villareal -0.75, Inter (away) -0.75, Aston Villa -0.75 and Milan -1.5.

The first of the listed bets was the mistake. My reasoning was that they had begun to get their play together and with strikers and wingers in form, they would want to show their fans that they can play good football. That along with the fact that Boro is a better team than Bolton and Bolton's away form is poor.

Bolton was missing a couple of starting players also but all of that didn't really matter in this game considering the motivational differences between the teams. Boro is safe and had basically nothing to play for and Bolton is fighting for survival. The teams that is fighting for survival is very dangerous because relegation isn't just awkward and degrading for the players, the club and the fans it is also a economical set back for the club and the players (except for those who leaves for a higher paying job) so it can be really tough to get back up.

This was KEY in this game and I should have seen it before I placed the bet but I guess I got to experience this phenomenon first hand now and will be more alert to it in the future.

The game ended Boro 0 - 1 Bolton

Atletico Madrid was the bet I considered to be the best of the Saturday games. It was a Atletico ready to protect their fourth place which has been said to be a extremely high priority because of the planned venture to become one of the truly big clubs. And a Champions League spot is needed for that not only for the financial aspects and the exposure but also to keep their best players. If they fail to qualify they risk losing their most talanted players among them the most important and Atletico's future Kun. Along with that, and that they are the better team and playing at home and are in good, altoughh inconsistent, form Betis was missing three starting players and risking to start with a third choice striker (I don't know for sure that tath became the case).

They were missing a few very influential offensive forces which must have been a relief for Atletico's inconsistent and a bit unorganized defence. I considered the Madrid teams offence to be to strong and that they would be too focused to screw this up.

Atletico ended up making a terrible perfomance and lost more than fairly with 1-3 to the away team Betis.

Sevilla is after the fourth place and Champions League qualification and should take the chance at home against Almeira, both to pull away from a still somewhat chasing Almeira and the other teams in contention and also close in on Atletico. Although Sevilla's flair should out do Almeira their was a small risk in set pieces. Almeira is recognized as a great set piece team and Sevilla quite the opposite. This should be very marginal with a highly motivated Sevilla going full out from the get go.

Sevilla began to show some great play with several missed chances but then Alves decided to help Almeira on the way with a own goal and after that it got tough and Almeira ended up wining 1-4 (Sevilla playing at home).

Everything except a coming midweek fixture in the UEFA cup pointed towards a Fiorentina victory in their game against Palermo. With a Champions League spot in sight there shouldn't be anything wrong with the motivation for the game and the UEFA cup game is still second to a CL spot acording to everyone involved in some way in the club, all the way from the board room to the fans.

Considering class, form and Palermo's sad road record there wasn't much hinting for a Palermo upset. Then there was the injury problems in Palermo with among others defensive general Barzagli missing.

The game ended 1-0 to Fiorentina

Villareal had both class and home form going for them in their game agianst Valladolid. They have also lost two games in a row which is somewhat of a freak occurance and should give them a boost in their will to show their fans a good game. They also have a shot at second place which would mean easier time in the Champions League and more money.

Villareal 2-0 Valladolid

Inter had a chance to widen the gap down to Roma in their game away to Torino. The hcp on this game was quite low, most likely because of all the missing players in Inter which won't matter here considering their strong squad. Torino also had some set backs on important players. Form points in favour of Inter and Torino's recent home form is very poor.

Torino 0-1 Inter

Aston Villa took on Birmingham in this derby game which came to be a very one sided event. This may seem just like the Boro game with one much more motivated team but that wasn't the case because it was a derby and that Villa is after a place in a euro cup. With Birmingham missing quite a few influential players this game would be decided by the superiority of Aston Villa. Form wise they are also much stronger and after the repossitioning of Young (or tactical change of his job on the pitch, much more free moving) Villa has had a boost in performances. Although they haven't faced any strong teams as of recent Birmingham is at the same level as their recent oppositions.

Villa 5-1 Birmingham

Milan had a must win game against Reggina and it is with the knife to the throat they operate at their true ability. It is a big class difference between these teams and as I said when Milan truly have to, they know how to play football. Reggina's road record isn't that impressive either.

AC Milan 5-1 Reggina

Thanks for reading.

Daniel

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