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My Journey to Professional Football-Betting
Observations and thoughts of a pre-professional football bettor with occassional comments by J Armstrong. Updated at least once weekly.

by Daniel Andersson

Date: 24 March 2008

EURO CHASERS & OTHER UPSETS

Hey J

Today I only have an analysis for the bets I placed.

The bets for the weekend was Sevilla -0.5, Roma -1.5, Milan (away) -0.5, Aston Villa -1, Bilbao -0.5 and Villareal (away) -0.75.

Below lies my analysis for each game.

First off Sevilla. This game (Sevilla - Atletico Madrid) is very important and has been refered to as a seven point game, this because they are so close and fighting for the Champions League positions and other than points, goal difference and mutual meets can become decisive in the end for who gets to play in the finest of competitions. I rank Sevilla as the slightly stronger team. They are both fairly similar in playing style but Sevilla has an edge on flair, speed and on the wings and this will be the decider. Atletico also has strong whings with quick and technical players operating there but they are not that good defensively and a good job in defence is needed to stop Sevilla's wingers, especially on the right were they often end up in two to one situations with Navas and Alves.

Both teams got somewhat questionable defences because their heavy emphasis on attack and that both teams will score in this game is pretty much a sure bet. Both defences will have a tough time handeling the other teams forwards, which both are in the top 5 of quality forward pairs.

Sevilla's home form and general class at home will be the decider in this game.

Roma is coming from a Rome derby ending in misery and they are sure to want to bounce back right away. Against a very weak road team in Empoli they will have no problem winning and considering the motivation in Roma and the class of the team a two goal win is very likely.

Mexes and Aquilani is missing but with Empoli's terrible away play and lack of goals a little rearanging in defence is of no big importance and Pizzaro is most likely the better choice on midfield (instead of Aquilani) in this game considering his offensive and creative abilities. Empoli is on top of everything else that speaks against them missing a couple of starters.

The chance to gain on Inter is a big motivator too. Since Inter is playing Juve there is a chance they will lose points and if that is to happen and Roma wins this game they are still in the race for the Scudetto.

Milan is playing away to Torino and they are desperate to grab all three points. If they doesn't qualify for Champions League next year they are going to be in a very bad position in front of the President and the fans will not be pleased at all to say it mildly.

Despite the absence of Kaka they will pull through in this game with Seedorf pulling a big load of the creative responibility. Pato will get more rome to shine with the added weight on his shoulders, and he seems to be very strong mentally so he will grow with that.

This bet is spelled MOTIVATION. With the class of Milan's team, at least the starting line up, they win games like this when they have the needed motivation.

Aston Villa have Sunderland as visitors and their road record isn't something that boost their chances for this game. If I'm not totally off here they haven't won on the road this year and just grabbed three points in total this season away from home. A good home team vs a terrible road team is big reason for this bet but also form and the fact that Villa is chasing the Euro spots and that Sunderland isn't in a huge need of points, they will most likely stay clear of degredation with their home pitch's help. Sunderland is missing some players and amongst them Jones who is very important to their attack. (One thing I missed in this game pre-game in my analysis is the fact that Aston Villa scores somthing like 50% of their goals on set pieces. This against a team that is fairly good at that to may be a small concern).

The bet on Bilbao was fairly easy to come to a descision on. Getafe has played 12 games unbeaten in 5-6 weeks and a certain amount of fatigue is begining to show. They are also missing a couple of players for this game and on top of all their president has mentioned that their increadible form is bound to end soon and this is something I think the entire team share so the conviction for this game may be low. Bilbao is also a strong home team and is motivated to win in this game considering their league possition.

Villareal is a very strong team and they work very well on the road. They are facing a team that has big problems in all aspects off the pitch. Both financially and administrationally Levante is having problems. This is bound to affect the players, even though the players that chose to stay despite the lack of pay-checks has done a fairly good job as a group and these problems may even have made them stronger as a group but they aren't a good enough team to win or even draw against a strong Villareal.

Thanks for reading.

Daniel

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