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My Journey to Professional Football-Betting
Observations and thoughts of a pre-professional football bettor with occassional comments by J Armstrong. Updated at least once weekly.

by Daniel Andersson

Date: 24 June 2008

MY EURO BETS THUS FAR

Hi J

So far it has been even win/loss for me so I think it isn't good enough but still it is my first big championship to bet on and I have picked up a couple of things.

First off the psychological aspects in these sorts of tournaments seem to be huge. For example, and the one thing that has stood out so far, let's take a look at the quarters.

In the quarter finals it was one team in every game that had rested a big amount of players the last group stage game since they already were through. Obviously this may seem like a plus against a team who had fight all the way to the finish line but that may not be the case.

Now I haven't looked at the previous years EC's or WC's but in this tournament three of the four teams who rested players got kicked out and if you look at both Portugal and Holland they didn't really have those last needed percentages and were a bit unfocused.

This is how I look at it. I think that a rest period of around a week in a short tournament, as the Euro's are, creates a small vacation which isn't benificial for the players focus. It may even cause a loss of the edge needed. The training sessions isn't that helpful either since it mostly is tactical work, recovery and some easy drills. So that doesn't help to keep the "edge".

This because it has been such an intense ride and then a pause comes and all the stress droped. This then makes it tough to restart much like after a long tough day at work and then when you get home and sit down in front of the TV and relaxes it is real easy to pass out and it then is really tough to drag yourself to do any more good that day. I may be wrong but I think this is quite accurate. The rest isn't that important for the next game either since they have three to four days of rest and preparations between games.

The fear of conceding the first goal in the knock outs have also been evident. It is so much at stake that the teams focus alot more on organisation and staying safe that the offensive work lose force.

The only team that has showed a really impressive offensive in the quarters is Russia who has showed some really impressive total football.

Even tough I haven't had the best tournament I think most of my bets have been good. There has been a couple of misses in my bet against Sweden when they faced Greece, I really overestimated Greece.

Then I bet on Poland against Austria when both teams could go through. That was a bad bet considering the home nation obviously would fight for their lives to prove themself for their home fans. And since the difference in ability between the teams isn't huge the home advantage was of big importance. Then I bet on Holland against Russia but on this one I don't blame myself. I also had a over bet on that game which I still think was a good bet.

Another thing I have noticed is that I have to do a thorough research on each team before the championship and create a portfolio on each team. This will give alot since there is no stats that can help in a national team tournament in my opinion.

Thanks for reading.

Daniel

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