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My Journey to Professional Football-Betting
Observations and thoughts of a pre-professional football bettor with occassional comments by J Armstrong. Updated at least once weekly.

by Daniel Andersson

Date: 25 February 2008

Bad Runs and Money Management

In the recent Champions League fixtures I did not exactly make a killing. I won one and lost three and a half. Even though the bets were good, in my opinion, I may have underestimated the importance of homefield advantage in CL. Four of my five bets were away teams and it was those that lost.

My bets were Inter (away) 0, Chelsea (away) -0.5, R Madrid (away) +0.25, Fenerbache 0 and Man U (away) -0.25.

None of these were bad bets. The only one I can question myself in retrospect is Inter and that is because it was such a tight game and could really end in any way but I made that bet for a different reason. This might sound stupid but I made the bet to break a habit of avoiding derby games despite there is a good bet. Now this wasn't a derby but it it was derby like game. I will get to the more specific reasons to why I bet on Inter later.

Below is the analysis for each game.

Inter is a more solid team and even in performance. They have much better form and even though this is the last competition Liverpool can win something in I think Inter has a greater will to win the CL since the club have failed in the competition for so long. It has been alot of trouble and arguments in Liverpool lately, especially concerning Benitez and this may have shaken the teams belief in the coach. After the shock defeat to Barnsley Liverpool is looking to proove themselves now and will most likely start off the game at a massive pace. But after riding out the first storm Inter will even the play and the generall form of the teams will decide the outcome of the game.

Chelsea is going for CL triumph. They are a stronger team than Olympiacos and are in good form. They have managed the peiod through the African Championships great and now with all players back they get some extra quality. Olympiakos is a good home team but Chelsea will be too "heavy" for them.

Real Madrid comes from a disapointing loss to Betis and will be very motivated to win their opening game. Real is a stronger than Roma. Despite Roma is one of the most entertaining teams to watch they are in bad form and they aren't to dangerous in other ways than their fast style of play. This is something Real has gotten good at this year again also and they can threaten in offence in more ways than Roma. The only thing Roma have that Real don't is Totti, which can be the deciding factor but he has been out of form. The only thing that is not up to speed in Real is their back line which has been rotating all season. The odds has moved to +0.25 for Real because of the injuries they have but I think the replacements is close to as good. Heinze, if he plays left defender, is to me a better chioce than Marcelo.

Fenerbache has home pitch and the best fans in the world as support. The cold could be somewhat troublesome for Sevilla but I think they will handle that well considering it can be quite cold in some parts of Spain during the winter and they have played in these conditions before. What decides this game is the importance of the game. It is the first time both teams are in the knock out stages of CL and it is a very big and important thing for both teams. Because of this, that both teams are home teams and that Fenerbaches home fans is something special the homefield advantage will decide this game.

Man U is a stronger team than Lyon. Lyon has not been as dominant as usual and they have some trouble at the centre back.

So, I underestimated the homefield advantage that, as I allready knew, is very important in euro competitions. I actually had a guideline before to not bet on away teams in CL or the UEFA cup. Homefield advantage seem to be extra important in the first legs when the favourite is at away ground because they are more than happy to draw and fininsh it off at home.

Something I have realised now is that it is the second legs in the knock out stages that is most playable because then it is easier to spot the extra motivation and who can play on the result and so on.

Today I have made two bets in the UEFA cup. A Madrid -1 and Villareal -1.25. Both are based on the above sentence. They both lost their first leg against teams that isn't at their ability. They lost at away ground and therefor have home pitch now. Both seem to be very motivated to go through to the next round. Atletico have some players missing but after reading a interview with Luis Garcia I think they take this game very seriously and despite the injuries they have a strong team. Villareal get Senna back from injury which is very important for the balance and performance of the team.

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