Football Betting Basics

For Advanced Bettors

Football Betting Tools

My Journey to Professional Football-Betting
Observations and thoughts of a pre-professional football bettor with occassional comments by J Armstrong. Updated at least once weekly.

by Daniel Andersson

Date: 28 April 2008

CL at Old Trafford

Hi J

The return legs of the Champions League are coming up and it is a couple of really interesting games. For now I will focus on the game at Old Trafford.

Manchester United take on Barcelona at Old Trafford and it is surely looking like Man U has a real edge in this one, although I am not so sure.

Changes in the United Defence
If Vidic and Rooney were to miss this game it is all open in my opinion. Sure United has some qualified substitutes but the loss of Rooney's attitude is a minus and a rearrange at the back with Brown moving in besides Ferdinand is not optimal. Even though Wes has shown holds at the top level he isn't a world class defender and not at the capacity of Vidic. Then there is the new partnership with Ferdinand/Brown which lacks in comparison to the greatest center lock in the world at the moment with Ferdinand/Vidic. So in that situation, misunderstandings and easy mistakes may very well occur.

Barca's Last Chance
Then there is the case of the opposition.

United are facing Messi and Eto'o up front and with a bit uncoordinated defence, it can end badly for Man U. Now Barca is not at their A-game but with the only chance at a title this season they will surely pull themselves together for this one and fight till they taste blood, but then again you never know with the superstars at the Catalan capital.

Barca isn't exactly a wall at the back and will need to focus really hard to stop Man U's flying attack with Ronaldo, in the form of his life, leading the way. Allthough I am not sure Barca's defensive problems stem from the defenders, it may very well be the lack of focus from the players further up on the pitch. The focus on attack is so vast that they let go a bit at the back. With so many offensively-oriented players it shouldn't come as a shock that with both wing backs and five players from midfield all focused on attack, there are only three players left (plus Valdes) who has a defensive focus. But it is actually this attitude that can be their chance in this game since they need to score and by trying to push United back with lots of possession they will put Manchester in an uncomfortable and unusual position which may shock the home team.

Possible Tactical Battles
Barcas only chance is to put on a 100% display and a very high tempo game because Man U is way too stable to put off in a slow paced game. Then I can't forget the midfield battle which is always important in these close games. It is very often the team who wins the midfield that wins the game. Both teams can present some quality players here but for Man U to win this part of the game they will need to push their wingers in and make it very compact for Barca's center triangle who is a bit quicker and creative. But they, Manchester, will probably play with a five- man midfield and not just with a pulled down forward as they usually do, they may do that if Rooney is good to play.

But if they have Anderson in front of Scholes and Carrick instead, I think it would be wrong to put up a five man midfield. They need to put pressure on Barca and a two man attack or their usual formation with a pulled back free moving forward would be best. This may very well be a quite boring game despite the involved teams because it is so much at stake. Man U will want to avoid any mistakes at the back and cut short any risks since one goal let in will mean a real uphill battle with a need to score twice. Barca who really can't play sit and watch kind of football should really play their own game bacuse they are not in the same position as United with a scored goal so they should try to break the 0-0 score line as soon as possible. This probably won't be the case. Most likely Barca will also start out slow and watch what unfolds. So a passive game is not that unlikely considering the costs of a mistake. 0-0?

I will also do a short review of a couple of my bets from the weekend.

My bets were as follows. Wigan -0.25, Sevilla (away) -0.75, Recreativo -1, Racing (away) +0.25 and Reggina -0.5.

Recreativo are involved in the bottom struggle and face a fellow struggeler in Levante. Levante who's players just came of a strike to not forfeit the game which shows what kind morale there is in that club at the moment. They are fighting over left out pay checks and the club had to borrow money to pay off some of what they owe to the players just to make them play basically.

The game ended Recreativo 2-0 Levante.

Reggina took on Parma at home and this was also a relegation struggle. Despite Parma being the better team Reggina was a given bet considering the importance of the game for both teams and that Parma were missing 9(!) players for this game mainly because of susspensions.

Daniel

Click Here to Become a Member of The Silver Circle.

1. Receive J Armstrong's personal picks through both email and SMS.
2. Direct access to J Armstrong though email.
3. Access to Members' Area and support.
4. Access to protected information reserved only for members.