| Football Bettor's Survey | ||
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Roma 2 AC Milan 1
We are reaching a point were one mistake can cost you many millions.
March/April are months you don't need bad form,injured players,low morale etc.
Too much at stake now.
Let's start off with a couple of games and analyse what we saw this weekend.
First off, we had the Cottbus-Bayern game.
Last team against the leaders in Germany.
A clear away win right?
If football was so simple there would be no bookies around.
If it was just down to looking at stats and you base your play on that, Bayern would have won 5-0.
Friday afternoon we had -1 Asian on Bayern at 1.6
The Hitsfield-Demichelis fight could not be hidden from the public
"I play for Argentina which means I am good enough to play for Bayern in central defence"
He is excluded from the trip to Cottbus.
Before kick off we had -1 dropping to 1.48.
Game finished 2-0 to Cottbus after two nice goals from Branko Jelic.
How could this have happened?
People want answers here.
Especially those who bet on the Away win in this game.
Many of them want (and probably need) to hear that maybe, it was a fixed game?
The answer is fact, is far simpler than that, it's called "football"
30 minutes after kick off in Cottbus we had the same scenario in England.
Derby taking on United.
Last team against the leaders
United had prices from 1.15-1.19.
Also here, a game that on paper should finnish 5-0 to United.
But unless you are Luciano Moggi and can fix the games by some phonecalls.
It's on that green field that games are settled.
It's not enough you are the better team on paper, you must show it as well.
There was alot of talk about "rookie" golkeeper Ben Foster before the game.
Can he handle the pressure playing for United etc etc.
I tell you this.
United only walked away with 3 points because of him.
He made some saves that I am not sure Van der Sar would have made.
In the evening we had the top game Roma-Milan in Seria A.
Top game with one team being a little tired (Roma) and the other one having bad results (Milan).
In this game we saw how much of an impact the referee can have in a result.
The score was 0-1 when Pato was tripped by the Roma keeper.
9 out of 10 referees in Italy are pointing at the penalty spot in situations like this.
In my book, Pato did exaggerate the fall yes but it was still a clear penalty in my book.
Roma finally turned the game around and won 2-1.
Homewin gave from 1.95-2.20 something.
I don't agree with prices like this.
First of all, it was not a game I was interested in.
Second if I had bet, I would go for homewin yes, but not with the prices offered.
I am amazed to see so many average players playing for a team like Milan.
Kaladze, Jankolovski, Maldini, Brochi, Gilardino, Ambrosini, Bonera, Gattuso.
And the results they get are telling us this as well.
Once again they will fight for their lives for that 4th place.
Reigning European Champions you say?
It takes only 2-3 good games to become Champions of Europe
Champions League many times have nothing to do with how good or bad a team is.
The best teams do not always win these cups.
Take Chealsea this year for example.
Olympikaos and now Fenerbache in the draw
Good teams but not teams that will make Chelsea suffer won't you say?
And all of the sudden Chelsea are in the semi finals.
2-3 good games that's all and you lift the trophy.
It's in your own league you see how good you really are.
Here you play 34-40 games and play against all types of different teams.
Last game on Saturday was the "big game" Valencia-Sevilla in La Liga.
I did bet +0.25 Asian Hcp on Sevilla and the reason was simple.
Sevilla is a better team and did not deserve to be the underdog here.
Valencia gave around 2.50 and that is pushing it.
The Mestalla is anything but a good place for Valencia this season.
It's a counterattacking team that needs space to show there strengths.
They don't get that playing at home and that's why they suffer.
Sevilla on the other hand is very poor away from home.
That is what made me stay away from straight away win.
Many of the games they lost this season came down to either bad luck or a lack of motivation.
And I knew there is no way they wouldn't be motivated for a game like this.
Sevilla is a team that's a perfect example of how to succeed without a big bankroll.
The back to back UEFA Cup Champions bring up players from their youth academy and sell them and make huge profits.
End of this season you will see Dani Alves go for 25+ millions (probably Barca)
Just remember who told you this first.
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Dear Greg,
I've been a member since July 2003, maybe one of the first to join the Silver Circle.
2004 was a good year but I really enjoyed the long run we had in, I think, July 2005. It was exhilarating! 2006-2007 was not as exciting although still quite profitable and so far 2007-2008 looks quite good. I'm wondering if we're going to hit a long one again soon. Anyway, it's been a pleasure as always with your service, Greg. Armstrong and you are one of the few people I trust on the internet. You have made my retirement so much more fun and financially happy!
Best Wishes, Trent Wrayford, Sidney
