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Euro 2008 - Who to Bet On?

This time four years ago, anyone who would have tipped Greece to win Euro 2004 in Portugal would have been laughed at but it shows what the majority of pundits know. Playing to their collective strengths of tight defensive work and set play prowess, the Greeks stunned the football world with a triumph over the host nation in the final.

You may think that this has put a stop on anyone making predictions but that would take the fun out of football so its time to consider who will be triumphant at Euro 2008. There is every chance the big names will be fired up for this tournament so naturally our focus will fall upon them and their fight to win the trophy.

Will Spain Do It This Time?
One of the best ways to start though is to look at one of the big teams who probably won’t go on to win the tournament. Spain may come back and leave us with paella on our face but there are a few reasons why the Spanish will not be victorious this summer. Barring one European Nations in the 1960s, the Spanish national team has always flattered to deceive at major tournaments.

Listed as many people’s third favourites for the event and featuring Fernando Torres it shouldn’t be beyond Spain to win this event but history and the draw of the tournament does not favour them.

The passage to the final has been mapped out for the groups and if Spain qualifies from Group D, they will likely face the two qualifiers from Group C if they wish to make it to the final. This means the Spaniards will need to finish in the top two of their group and then probably have to beat two out of three from Italy, France or Holland all before they even reach the final.

Given the Spaniards usual act of imploding before the action becomes serious, this route seems particularly difficult and suggests they will not be the overall winner at Euro 2008. If they do pass through these challenges unscathed then there would be very few people unwilling to say they deserved it.

Pre-Determined Route to the Final Suits Germany
It is this same separation of the groups that also ensures that Germany look a decent bet to get to the final. If Germany progress, their knock out matches will likely be up against Portugal and the Czech Republic, both of which are tricky ties but certainly winnable for a squad like Germany.

Germany's hosting of the 2006 world cup saw the team regain its confidence and with Bayern Munich back to their swaggering best this season, German football is back on top.

Klose and Podolksi will carry the main goal threat and when you consider that Germany are playing Austria in the group stages, there is every chance of one of these two finishing up the top goal scorer of the tournament. Their opening match sees them square off against Poland, a re-run of a 2006 group match where the heroics of Artur Boruc kept the Germans at bay until the last few minutes. There is no doubt that Germany will settle for another victory, no matter how tight, to get their campaign off to a flying start.

There is also talk about the German goalkeeping position with news that Jens Lehmann may be retiring after the summer. The stroppy stopper has barely played all season for Arsenal but there is no doubt that he will have the self-confidence and belief that he should march straight into the German nets for the tournament. If the Germans can ensure their strikers hit the target whilst whoever is in goals does the business, you would have to suggest that the Germans are a strong bet for the final.

Aside from the Germans, the other teams from the top half of the draw who may fancy their chances would be Portugal or the Czech Republic. A beaten finalist in Euro 2004, there is little doubt that in Ronaldo, Portugal hold one of the players who could be the best player in the tournament. With the Czech Republic having Petr Cech in goals and the all powerful Jan Koller up front, they may just be able to power their way to the final but the odds are definitely tipped in the Germans favour.

Group of Death Means Early Elimination
The bottom half of the draw features the Group of Death with France, Holland and Italy squaring up with the knowledge that at least one of them will be eliminated during the group stages. Italy are the current World Cup holders and will feature as the favourites of the bottom half of the draw but it really is difficult to call who will join them in the second half of the draw. Friday the 13th is a day that scares many people but the shivers will be running up the spine of the coaches of France and Holland as the two play each other with any defeat suggesting the loser will be going home.

By the time France and Holland kick off, Italy will have played their second match against Romania and will be looking to have at least 4, if not 6 points on the board by the kick off for France and Holland. Italy have already progressed above France in the qualifying group for this tournament, as well as beating France in the last world cup final and there is no doubt that the Italians still have class at every level.

Italians Look for Double Delight
Whether the Italians have the legs to win both trophies back to back but there is nothing to suggest that the azzuri can not replicate France's double glory of 1998 and 2000. For those who haven’t kept up to date with Serie A, there may be an eyebrow raised at Allessandro Del Piero's inclusion but he has been in sparkling form all season. His goals have been a major reason behind Juventus finishing third and if there is the need for a little bit of magic, there is every chance that Del Piero can provide it.

In a knock out tournament, it is as important to avoid defeat as it is to be able to win it and no one can control games defensively better than the Italians with the ever impressive Gigi Buffoon in goals. They also have a rock solid defence and it just seems to point towards the Italians backing up their 2006 triumph with at least another final placing.

Who Will Be Involved on the 29th of June?
So if our tips are anything to go by, it looks as though Sunday 29th of June will see Germany and Italy face off against each other and in a one-off match, who can say how it will go. Of the two, Italy look to have the potential match-winners as well as the capability to shut the opposition out and there should be no surprise if they triumph again.

By Andrew Reilly

for The Silver Circle at www.footballtip.co.uk

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