Football Betting Basics

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Over the years, I've noticed various patterns inherent across football  matches.  While there is no 100% certainty, the probablities of certain events occuring, given a certain set of conditions, are quite high and worth making bets on.  These findings are backed by statistical data I've collected over more than a decade and I consider this information quite valuable.

Here are some of them:

1. Underdog team scores first, early in the game.

Most of the time, when the underdog team scores first early in the game, the stronger team will at least equalize and likely go on to win the match, especially if they're playing at home. Hence, for live betting, finding a match in which the weaker team (preferably away) scores first is a great opportunity to then bet on the favourite.  The earlier the weaker team scores the first goal, the more likely the favourite will score. This is true about 80% of the time. So, although not a dead certainty, knowing the team news, motivations, etc will enable you to choose the correct opportunity to exploit and give you chances higher than 80%.

2. Nearly a third of matches end up in 0-0 after the first-half.

If you like Over/Under Bets, betting first on Under in the first half of a carefully selected match and then betting on Over (on a smaller handicap) in the 2nd half (or close to the end of the 1st half) gives you a nice hedge.

Statistically, most of the action in football matches occurs in the 2nd half.

3. Player gets sent off in a match.

Late Send-off
If a team is winning and one of their players gets sent off, say after 75 mins into the match, it's a good time to bet on Under, as the winning team will focus more on defending their lead.  With not much time left on the match, it is likely (81% for 75th min and after send-off) that they will succeed.

The later the send-off, the more likely this is true.

Early Send-off
Whatever the score, when a player gets sent off early in a match (less than 15 minutes), then the other team is likely to score at least one goal as the match wears on and fatigue on the remaining players set in.  This is true for matches where the weaker team gets the player sent off and for evenly matched teams.

This is however, not true when dominating teams lose a player.

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